As President Donald Trump reaches the 100-day mark of his second term on April 30, 2025, investors find themselves reflecting on a period defined by rapid policy shifts and landmark market reactions. Following his January inauguration, markets initially rallied on expectations of continued corporate tax relief, deregulation, and robust fiscal spending. However, that optimism soon met headwinds as the administration pivoted aggressively toward trade confrontation.
The defining event came on the 2nd of April, when the White House announced “reciprocal” tariffs on a broad swathe of U.S. trading partners. The package included a 10% baseline levy on all imports- escalating to higher rates for countries running large trade surpluses with America- and a 145% tariff maintained on Chinese goods. This sweeping announcement marked one of the boldest trade-policy moves since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s, signalling a willingness to upend decades-old trade relationships in the name of rebalancing global deficits.
Roughly 15% of trading days during this window saw moves of ±2%, compared to just 3% for all of 2024. These figures underscore how quickly sentiment can shift when policy surprises abound- and remind us that, in today’s interconnected markets, no asset class remains untouched.
Global Market Volatility and Recovery
In early April, markets experienced a noticeable pullback as investors adjusted to new trade measures, but they quickly found firmer footing once those measures were softened. Between February 19 and April 3, the S&P 500 declined by around 19% (USD), its most significant correction since early 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite and the MSCI World Index eased by roughly 21% (USD) and 12% (USD), respectively. Over the two days of April 2nd and 3rd, U.S. equity benchmarks saw their largest back-to-back declines on record- a 10% (USD) drop in the S&P 500 and an 11% (USD) fall in the Nasdaq- erasing approximately $6.6 trillion in market value. During that period, the VIX volatility index rose from the mid-teens to the mid-30s, reflecting a temporary increase in uncertainty, and 10-year Treasury yields moved from 4.20% down to around 3.78% as investors sought stability.
While these movements may appear significant, it’s important to remember they were driven largely by policy announcements rather than by a fundamental shift in economic or corporate health.
Once the administration announced on the 9th of April a 90-day pause on most of the newly proposed tariffs, the S&P 500 rallied 7.8% (USD) in a single session-one of its ten strongest gains since World War II-and the Nasdaq recovered its early-April losses within four trading days. From its 10 April trough through the end of the month, the S&P 500 gained approximately 11% (USD), the Nasdaq added around 13% (USD), and the MSCI World Index rose by about 9% (USD). Even smaller-capitalization stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, rebounded by nearly 8% (USD).
These fluctuations highlight how markets can adjust relatively quickly when policy uncertainties are clarified. For long-term investors, these policy-driven swings often present attractive opportunities to add quality positions at more favourable valuations and focusing on underlying fundamentals.
House View: Looking Forward
Our “House View” emphasizes the importance of keeping a steady, long-term perspective amid today’s headline-driven markets. History shows that market cycles inevitably include periods of heightened volatility – often sparked by sudden policy shifts- but missing even a handful of the best trading days can meaningfully erode compounded returns over time. Rather than reacting to each pullback by exiting positions, we believe it makes sense to remain invested in high-quality equities and broad market exposures, using temporary dips as opportunities to add to core holdings at more attractive valuations.
At the same time, diversification across asset classes remains critical. While growth-oriented equities should continue to play a central role, balancing them with defensive allocations- such as bonds- helps cushion portfolios against abrupt selloffs. This mix is designed to protect capital when markets retrench yet still capture upside participation when risk appetite returns.
We continue to monitor both the macro- and micro-environment closely and make adjustments to portfolios whenever we believe they’re warranted, but it’s crucial to judge investments over a multi-year horizon rather than a three-month span. Market pullbacks of this nature, while unsettling in the moment, are in fact a normal part of the investment cycle and tend to occur in some form every year. Far from signalling a need to sell, these episodes often present attractive buying opportunities.
In response to the early-April sell-off, we have modestly increased our exposure to equities- particularly in high-quality companies that continue to deliver robust earnings growth. We believe that over the long term, corporate fundamentals- not short-term political events- will drive returns. By taking advantage of temporary market dislocations to add to core holdings, we aim to position portfolios for durable growth while remaining agile should conditions change.
Conclusion
President Trump’s first 100 days of a second term have been among the most eventful in modern market history. From a historic two-day sell-off to one of the largest single-day rebounds since World War II, investors have experienced a dramatic roller-coaster ride. Yet through it all, core economic fundamentals and corporate health remain largely intact.
The takeaways are clear: maintain a disciplined, long-term approach; leverage diversified portfolios to navigate headline risk. While trade policy will likely continue to fluctuate, history teaches us that markets adapt – and opportunity often emerges from volatility.
As we move into the heart of earnings season and await further policy clarity, we remain optimistic. A well-structured, diversified strategy can not only weather the storms of the moment but also harness market rebounds for sustained wealth creation over time.
